Growth
+0.7% y/y
Real GDP per capita
Q2 2026
Australia remains in Transition on 27 September 2026, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% – still 1.1 percentage points above the RBA's 2–3% inflation target band – while GDP growth has slowed to trend at 2.1% YoY. Continuation of Transition is the single most likely outcome at 56.4%, though a 35.3% probability of an adverse shift to stagflation reflects risk from persistently elevated inflation, softening labour markets, and stressed consumer sentiment. System health remains strong at 92/100, but Consumer sentiment scores just 35/100 (stressed) and manufacturing activity is weakening.
↑ Employment rose 39.5k in Aug 2026
↑ Retail sales rose 7.0% in Jul 2026
– Trimmed mean inflation was unchanged at 3.6% in Jul 2026
EconomyIntel connects the current evidence to the channels through which conditions affect households, businesses and markets.
Employment, inflation, spending and the cash rate combine to shape real household income and demand.
Demand momentum, labour conditions and financing costs determine the pressure on revenue, margins and investment.
The balance between growth, inflation and policy—not one release in isolation—frames the transmission backdrop.
Four stable relationships explain the current configuration. Source, observation period and freshness remain inspectable; no missing series is replaced with a synthetic proxy.
Common base = 100 · official quarterly observations
As of Q2 2026 · Australian Bureau of Statistics · Next release 2 Dec 2026
As of Q2 2026 · Australian Bureau of Statistics · Next release 2 Dec 2026
Annual change, % · matched official observations
As of Jul 2026 · Australian Bureau of Statistics · Next release 30 Sept 2026
As of Jul 2026 · Australian Bureau of Statistics · Next release 30 Sept 2026
Share of the labour force, % · official monthly observations
As of Aug 2026 · Australian Bureau of Statistics · Next release 15 Oct 2026
As of Aug 2026 · Australian Bureau of Statistics · Next release 15 Oct 2026
Year-ended change, % · matched quarter-end observations
As of Jul 2026 · Reserve Bank of Australia · Next release 30 Sept 2026
As of Jun 2026 · Reserve Bank of Australia · Next release 2 Dec 2026
The public methodology explains the analytical architecture, data governance and confidence framework while keeping proprietary formulas, thresholds and decision rules protected.
Read the methodology →Published observations retain their source, series, period and freshness context.
Defined rules evaluate signals together across economic transmission channels.
Plain-English analysis is grounded in the evidence and kept separate from calculation.